Understanding Wealthsimple Predict

In this article:

Overview

Wealthsimple Predict is a prediction markets trading app that lets you take a Yes or No position on whether a real-world event will happen. It's a standalone app, separate from your main Wealthsimple app, and prediction contracts are traded in a separate account with Wealthsimple Investments Inc. If your position is correct, each contract pays out $1 USD. If it's wrong, it pays $0 USD.

What you can trade

You can trade thousands of event contracts on real-world outcomes across three categories:

  • Financial metrics (such as market indices, asset prices, and corporate earnings)
  • Economic data (such as interest rates, inflation, and employment)
  • Climate (such as temperature thresholds and precipitation levels)

How prices and payouts work

Every contract is priced between $0.01 USD and $0.99 USD. The price of a contract at any given time reflects what the market collectively thinks the probability of that outcome is. For example, a Yes contract trading at $0.70 USD implies a 70% probability of a Yes outcome. You can buy or sell contracts before settlement, so you can exit positions as new information moves the market.

  • Each Yes contract pays $1 USD for the Yes outcome and $0 USD for the No outcome.
  • Each No contract pays $1 USD for the No outcome and $0 USD for the Yes outcome.
  • Your maximum loss is always capped at what you paid.
  • You can buy fractional contracts, so you can trade any dollar amount.
Long example: Say you buy 1 Yes contract at $0.70 USD. If the event happens, the contract is worth $1 USD, for a profit of $0.30 USD (excluding fees). If the event doesn't happen, the contract is worth $0 USD and you lose your $0.70 USD (excluding fees). Your loss is always capped at what you paid.
Note: Margin and leverage aren't available on Predict. You can only trade with funds already in your Predict account. This is a regulatory requirement in Canada.

Get started

Wealthsimple Predict is a separate app from the main Wealthsimple app. Anyone can download it, including people who don't have a Wealthsimple profile. If you're already a Wealthsimple client, you can sign in with your existing Wealthsimple credentials. If you're new, you can sign up right in the Wealthsimple Predict app.

Steps on iOS

Before you begin, you'll need an iPhone running iOS 16 or later.

  1. Open the App Store, search for Wealthsimple Predict, and tap Get to download the app
  2. Open the app and sign in with your Wealthsimple email and password, or tap Sign up to create an account if you're new to Wealthsimple

Steps on Android

Before you begin, you'll need an Android phone running Android 8.0 or later.

  1. Open the Google Play Store, search for Wealthsimple Predict, and tap Install
  2. Open the app and sign in with your Wealthsimple email and password, or tap Sign up to create an account if you're new to Wealthsimple

Once setup is complete, a Predict non-registered account is opened for you. This account can hold both CAD and USD, and it's separate from all your other Wealthsimple accounts.

Fund your Predict account

You can fund your Predict account by following these steps:

  1. Log in to the Wealthsimple Predict app
  2. Go to the Wallet (person) tab and tap Add money
  3. Choose a funding source
  4. Tap Next
  5. Enter the amount you want to add
  6. Tap Next
  7. Confirm deposit details
  8. Tap Submit

You can fund your account with the following sources:

  • Linked bank account: Deposits are available to trade instantly up to your personal instant deposit limit (typically $5,000 CAD, which resets every 3 business days). Amounts above your instant limit are available to trade within 5 business days.
  • Interac e-Transfer®: Deposits are available to trade instantly, with no hold.
  • Internal transfers from other Wealthsimple accounts: How soon deposits are available to trade depends on the type of account you're transferring funds from.
Note: Incoming wire transfers aren't supported in the Predict app, but they're supported in the main Wealthsimple app.

Place a trade

You can place a trade on Predict by following these steps:

  1. Find a contract. From the Home screen, browse events by category, or use the Search bar to find a specific topic. Tap an event to open its Event Detail page, where you'll see a description, the current Yes and No prices, a probability chart, the settlement date, and how the outcome will be decided.
  2. Choose your position. For a single-outcome event, tap Yes if you think the outcome will happen or No if you think it won't. For a multi-bracket event, tap the threshold you want to trade, then choose Yes or No for that bracket.
  3. Choose your order type and size. Tap the order type dropdown at the top of the order screen and select Market (Dollars), Market (Contracts), or Limit. For a market order, enter the dollar amount or number of contracts you want to trade (fractional contracts are supported). For a limit order, enter the number of contracts and your limit price. See How your order fills below for how each order type works. The app shows your total cost, your maximum potential profit, and your maximum potential loss.
  4. Review and submit. Tap Review to check the contract, your position, the number of contracts, the price, and the total cost. When everything looks right, tap Submit. You'll see an Order Submitted confirmation. Once your order fills, your position will appear under Open in the Contracts tab. A limit order that hasn't filled yet won't appear there.
Note: Your account holds both CAD and USD. All contracts are USD-denominated, so if you deposit CAD, you can convert it to USD from the Wallet screen, or have it converted automatically when you place a trade. Standard Wealthsimple volume-based FX fees apply (see Fees below).

How your order fills

When you place an order, you can choose how it fills using the order type dropdown at the top of the order screen:

  • Market (Dollars): Buy or sell a dollar amount at the best available price. That's the lowest available price when you're buying, or the highest available price when you're selling.
  • Market (Contracts): Buy or sell a set number of contracts at the best available price.
  • Limit: Set the price you're willing to trade at. A buy limit order fills at your specified price or lower, and a sell limit order fills at your specified price or higher. If the market doesn't reach your limit price, the order won't fill.

Prices are shown in cents per contract, and each contract pays out $1 USD if it resolves in your favour. When you place a limit order, the current Bid, Last, and Ask prices are shown to help you choose your price.

Note: Fill prices for market orders aren't guaranteed. A market order fills at the best price available when it's placed, which can be different from the price you saw before you submitted. In low-volume markets, or for larger orders, part of your order may fill at less favourable prices. You may see a Low volume warning on events that aren't being traded much. Once an order fills, it can't be reversed or repriced.

Hide view-only markets

Some markets are view-only, so you can follow along but can't trade them. If you'd rather only see the markets you can trade, you can hide the view-only ones:

  1. Log in to the Wealthsimple Predict app
  2. Tap the Filter icon (three lines) in the top-right corner of the Home screen
  3. Tap Hide untradable events
Note: You can unhide view-only markets by following the steps above and selecting Show untradable events.

Manage your positions

You can sell your position any time while the market is open:

  1. Log in to the Wealthsimple Predict app
  2. Go to the Contracts tab and tap Open
  3. Select the contract you want to exit
  4. Tap Sell
  5. Choose your order type from the dropdown at the top of the order screen
  6. Enter the quantity to sell (and your limit price, for a limit order)
  7. Tap Submit

Once the event's outcome is determined, your contracts settle automatically. Each Yes contract pays $1 USD for the Yes outcome and $0 USD for the No outcome. Each No contract pays $1 USD for the No outcome and $0 USD for the Yes outcome. No action is needed from you. If settlement is taking longer than expected, see Delayed market settlement below.

You can review your open positions under Contracts, then Open; your past trades under Contracts, then History; and your monthly statements in the app.

Delayed market settlement

Settlement timing is set by each market's exchange and varies from market to market. You can find a market's expected timing in the Timeline section of its Event Detail page. Most markets settle shortly after the event ends, but a delay can happen when:

  • The event hasn't fully concluded: Some markets can't settle until an official result, report, or announcement is public, and those can be released later than expected.
  • The result is being verified: Exchanges confirm an outcome against official sources before settling. This step can take extra time, especially for closely contested events.

If a market still hasn't settled more than 48 hours after the projected payout time shown in Timeline, contact our support team at predictionsupport@wealthsimple.com with the market name and we'll be happy to help.

Note: Once a market closes, you can't buy or sell in it. Your position stays in your account until the market settles, and any winnings are added to your account automatically.

Withdraw your funds

You can withdraw funds from your Predict account by following these steps:

  1. Log in to the Wealthsimple Predict app
  2. Go to the Wallet (person) tab and tap Transfer money
  3. Choose your destination account
  4. Tap Next
  5. Enter the amount
  6. Tap Next
  7. Confirm transfer details
  8. Tap Submit

Withdrawal timing depends on how the funds were deposited and where they're going:

  • Linked bank account deposits must settle for 5 business days from the deposit date before they can be withdrawn, and the withdrawal process takes 1–3 business days.
  • Internal transfers to other Wealthsimple accounts can be done instantly.

Convert currency

Your Predict account holds both CAD and USD. All contracts are priced and settled in USD. If you have CAD, you can convert it yourself before trading, or have it converted automatically when you place a trade.

Convert currency yourself

To convert CAD to USD yourself:

  1. Log in to the Wealthsimple Predict app
  2. Go to the Wallet (person) tab and tap Convert
  3. Select CAD to USD
  4. Enter the amount you want to convert
  5. Tap Next
  6. Review the exchange rate and total
  7. Tap Submit
Tip: Standard Wealthsimple volume-based FX fees apply. The more you convert at once, the lower the rate. See Fees below for the full rate table.

Automatic conversion during trades

If you have CAD in your Predict account when you place a trade, the app can convert it to USD automatically when you submit your order. The same volume-based FX fees apply, and you'll see the exchange rate before you confirm.

Close your Predict account

You can close your Predict account yourself from the Wealthsimple Predict app:

  1. Log in to the Wealthsimple Predict app
  2. Go to the Wallet (person) tab and tap the gear (Settings) icon
  3. Tap Close account
  4. Confirm by tapping Close account
Note: Before closing your account, make sure you have no active positions, all pending orders have settled, and all funds have been withdrawn.

Fees

There's a flat fee of $0.02 USD per contract on both buys and sells. There are no other trading commissions.

Because contracts are in USD, standard Wealthsimple volume-based FX fees apply when you convert currency:

Amount converted FX rate
Under $10,000 CAD 1.5%
$10,000–$24,999 CAD 1.0%
$25,000–$99,999 CAD 0.5%
$100,000 CAD and over 0%

How fees work on fractional contracts

Because you can buy fractional contracts, the fee scales proportionally. The fee is calculated as your contract quantity multiplied by $0.02 USD, then rounded to the nearest cent. This means the fee moves in $0.01 USD increments as your position size increases. For example, a position of 0.24 contracts incurs no fee, while 0.25 contracts incurs $0.01 USD.

Frequently asked questions

Can I use money from my registered accounts to trade on Predict?

Yes. You can transfer funds from your registered accounts to your Predict account. These transfers follow the same rules as a registered to non-registered transfer, so check if your transfer will affect your income taxes or contribution room before you move funds.

Can I have more than one Predict account?

No. You can hold only one Predict account.

Can I trade on the web?

No. Wealthsimple Predict is a mobile-only app, available on iOS and Android. Web access isn't available at this time.

Can I browse markets before I sign up?

Yes. You can explore Predict, browse live contracts, and view probabilities without creating an account. You only need to sign up when you're ready to place your first trade.

Can I place a limit order?

Yes. To place a limit order, tap the order type dropdown at the top of the order screen (it defaults to Market) and select Limit. You'll then set the number of contracts and your limit price. When you're buying, a limit order fills at your specified price or lower. When you're selling, it fills at your specified price or higher. If the market doesn't reach your limit price, the order won't fill.

Are there times when I can't place a trade?

Yes. Orders submitted during either of these scheduled maintenance windows are rejected:

  • Thursdays, 3:00–5:00 am ET (the exchange)
  • Sundays, 2:00–5:00 am ET (the order router)

You can place your trade again once the window closes.

What are the tax implications of trading on Predict?

Gains and losses from prediction market contracts are generally treated as capital gains or losses for Canadian tax purposes. Since contracts are USD-denominated, gains and losses must be reported in Canadian dollars using the exchange rate on the date of each transaction. We recommend speaking with a tax professional for advice specific to your situation.

Why can't I trade every market I see?

You can view, but not trade, many of the top global prediction markets in the Wealthsimple Predict app. We make them visible so you can follow along. Securities regulators allow prediction markets trading for three categories (financial metrics, economic data, and climate). Markets outside those categories may show up as view-only, so you can see the probability, but there's no option to buy.

What does "Notify me" do?

Tapping Notify me on a market lets you flag that you'd be interested in trading it in the future. If that market becomes available to trade in Canada, we'll let you know.

Will I be able to trade view-only markets in the future?

We can't confirm today whether or when any specific market will open for trading in Canada. Tap Notify me on the markets you're interested in and we'll reach out if the status changes.

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