Understanding Wealthsimple Predict

Overview

Wealthsimple Predict is a prediction markets trading app that lets you take a Yes or No position on whether a real-world event will happen. It's a standalone app, separate from your main Wealthsimple app, and prediction contracts are traded in a separate account with Wealthsimple Investments Inc. If your position is correct, each contract pays out $1 USD. If it's wrong, it pays $0 USD.

What you can trade

You can trade thousands of event contracts on real-world outcomes across three categories:

• Financial metrics (such as market indices, asset prices, and corporate earnings)
• Economic data (such as interest rates, inflation, and employment)
• Climate (such as temperature thresholds and precipitation levels)

How prices and payouts work

Every contract is priced between $0.01 USD and $0.99 USD. The price of a contract at any given time reflects what the market collectively thinks the probability of that outcome is. For example, a Yes contract trading at $0.70 USD implies a 70% probability of a Yes outcome. You can buy or sell contracts before settlement, so you can exit positions as new information moves the market.

• Each Yes contract pays $1 USD for the Yes outcome and $0 USD for the No outcome.
• Each No contract pays $1 USD for the No outcome and $0 USD for the Yes outcome.
• Your maximum loss is always capped at what you paid.
• You can buy fractional contracts, so you can trade any dollar amount.

Get started

Wealthsimple Predict is a separate app from the main Wealthsimple app. Anyone can download it, including people who don't have a Wealthsimple profile. If you're already a Wealthsimple client, you can sign in with your existing Wealthsimple credentials. If you're new, you can sign up right in the Wealthsimple Predict app.

Steps on iOS

Before you begin, you'll need an iPhone running iOS 16 or later.

1. Open the App Store, search for Wealthsimple Predict, and tap Get to download the app
2. Open the app and sign in with your Wealthsimple email and password, or tap Sign up to create an account if you're new to Wealthsimple

Steps on Android

Before you begin, you'll need an Android phone running Android 8.0 or later.

1. Open the Google Play Store, search for Wealthsimple Predict, and tap Install
2. Open the app and sign in with your Wealthsimple email and password, or tap Sign up to create an account if you're new to Wealthsimple

Once setup is complete, a Predict non-registered account is opened for you. This account can hold both CAD and USD, and it's separate from all your other Wealthsimple accounts.

Fund your Predict account

You can fund your Predict account by following these steps:

1. Log in to the Wealthsimple Predict app
2. Go to the Wallet (person) tab and tap Add money
3. Choose a funding source
4. Tap Next
5. Enter the amount you want to add
6. Tap Next
7. Confirm deposit details
8. Tap Submit

You can fund your account with the following sources:

• Linked bank account: Deposits are available to trade instantly up to your personal instant deposit limit (typically $5,000 CAD, which resets every 3 business days). Amounts above your instant limit are available to trade within 5 business days.
• Interac e-Transfer®: Deposits are available to trade instantly, with no hold.
• Internal transfers from other Wealthsimple accounts: How soon deposits are available to trade depends on the type of account you're transferring funds from.

Place a trade

You can place a trade on Predict by following these steps:

1. Find a contract. From the Home screen, browse events by category, or use the Search bar to find a specific topic. Tap an event to open its Event Detail page, where you'll see a description, the current Yes and No prices, a probability chart, the settlement date, and how the outcome will be decided.
2. Choose your position. For a single-outcome event, tap Yes if you think the outcome will happen or No if you think it won't. For a multi-bracket event, tap the threshold you want to trade, then choose Yes or No for that bracket.
3. Choose your order type and size. Tap the order type dropdown at the top of the order screen and select Market (Dollars), Market (Contracts), or Limit. For a market order, enter the dollar amount or number of contracts you want to trade (fractional contracts are supported). For a limit order, enter the number of contracts and your limit price. See How your order fills below for how each order type works. The app shows your total cost, your maximum potential profit, and your maximum potential loss.
4. Review and submit. Tap Review to check the contract, your position, the number of contracts, the price, and the total cost. When everything looks right, tap Submit. You'll see an Order Submitted confirmation. Once your order fills, your position will appear under Open in the Contracts tab. A limit order that hasn't filled yet won't appear there.

How your order fills

When you place an order, you can choose how it fills using the order type dropdown at the top of the order screen:

• Market (Dollars): Buy or sell a dollar amount at the best available price. That's the lowest available price when you're buying, or the highest available price when you're selling.
• Market (Contracts): Buy or sell a set number of contracts at the best available price.
• Limit: Set the price you're willing to trade at. A buy limit order fills at your specified price or lower, and a sell limit order fills at your specified price or higher. If the market doesn't reach your limit price, the order won't fill.

Prices are shown in cents per contract, and each contract pays out $1 USD if it resolves in your favour. When you place a limit order, the current Bid, Last, and Ask prices are shown to help you choose your price.

Buy in Canadian dollars

You can pay for market buy orders directly with the CAD in your Predict account, without converting to USD first. Switch the currency toggle from USD to CAD to see contract prices in Canadian dollars and pay with your CAD balance.

1. Find a contract and choose your position. Tap an event, then tap Yes or No.
2. Choose a market order. Make sure the order type at the top of the order screen is Market (Dollars) or Market (Contracts).
3. Switch to CAD. Tap the CAD icon in the currency toggle, in the top-right corner of the order screen.
4. Enter your amount. The app shows your estimated cost, the exchange rate and your maximum payout in CAD.
5. Review and submit. Tap Review to check the details. Tap the fee info to see the full breakdown in CAD, including the contract cost and total cost. When everything looks right, tap Submit.

Important things to know

• Only market buys can be placed in CAD. Limit orders and all sells are placed in USD.
• CAD orders must use your account's CAD balance. You can't pay for one order with a mix of CAD and USD. If you don't have enough CAD, you can deposit more, or switch back to USD.
• Exchange rate. When you buy in CAD, we convert your CAD to USD at our exchange rate, which includes a 1.5% foreign exchange (FX) fee. You'll see the exchange rate and your total cost in CAD before you submit. Volume-based FX rates don't apply to orders placed in CAD. See Convert currency yourself.
• Contract fees. The $0.02 USD per-contract fee still applies. You'll see it in CAD as Estimated fees on the Review screen, and in your order's activity details.
• CAD amounts are estimates. Exchange rates can change between when you review your order and when it fills, so the final CAD amount may differ slightly.
• Sales and payouts are in USD. When you sell, or when a market settles, the money is added to your account in USD. To move it back to CAD, convert it from the Wallet screen.
• Prices elsewhere are in USD. Event pages, charts, and your positions continue to show prices in USD.

Manage your positions

You can sell your position any time while the market is open:

1. Log in to the Wealthsimple Predict app
2. Go to the Contracts tab and tap Open
3. Select the contract you want to exit
4. Tap Sell
5. Choose your order type from the dropdown at the top of the order screen
6. Enter the quantity to sell (and your limit price, for a limit order)
7. Tap Submit

Once the event's outcome is determined, your contracts settle automatically. Each Yes contract pays $1 USD for the Yes outcome and $0 USD for the No outcome. Each No contract pays $1 USD for the No outcome and $0 USD for the Yes outcome. No action is needed from you. If settlement is taking longer than expected, see Delayed market settlement below.

You can review your open positions under Contracts, then Open; your past trades under Contracts, then History; and your monthly statements in the app.

Delayed market settlement

Settlement timing is set by each market's exchange and varies from market to market. You can find a market's expected timing in the Timeline section of its Event Detail page. Most markets settle shortly after the event ends, but a delay can happen when:

• The event hasn't fully concluded: Some markets can't settle until an official result, report, or announcement is public, and those can be released later than expected.
• The result is being verified: Exchanges confirm an outcome against official sources before settling. This step can take extra time, especially for closely contested events.

If a market still hasn't settled more than 48 hours after the projected payout time shown in Timeline, contact our support team at predictionsupport@wealthsimple.com with the market name and we'll be happy to help.

Withdraw your funds

You can withdraw funds from your Predict account by following these steps:

1. Log in to the Wealthsimple Predict app
2. Go to the Wallet (person) tab and tap Transfer money
3. Choose your destination account
4. Tap Next
5. Enter the amount
6. Tap Next
7. Confirm transfer details
8. Tap Submit

Withdrawal timing depends on how the funds were deposited and where they're going:

• Linked bank account deposits must settle for 5 business days from the deposit date before they can be withdrawn, and the withdrawal process takes 1–3 business days.
• Internal transfers to other Wealthsimple accounts can be done instantly.

Convert currency

Your Predict account holds both CAD and USD. All contracts are priced and settled in USD. You can place market buys in CAD (see Buy in Canadian dollars) or USD, but limit orders and all sells are still in USD. You can convert currency in two ways.

Convert currency yourself

You can convert CAD to USD from the Wallet screen, or when prompted in the trading flow (see Convert during a trade). To convert from the Wallet screen:

1. Log in to the Wealthsimple Predict app
2. Go to the Wallet (person) tab and tap Convert
3. Select CAD to USD
4. Enter the amount you want to convert
5. Tap Next
6. Review the exchange rate and total
7. Tap Submit

Convert during a trade

If you don't have enough USD when you place an order, the app prompts you to convert CAD to USD before you continue. This is a regular conversion, so volume-based FX fees apply, and you'll see the exchange rate before you confirm. For market buys, you can skip this step by paying in CAD instead. See Buy in Canadian dollars.

Close your Predict account

You can close your Predict account yourself from the Wealthsimple Predict app:

1. Log in to the Wealthsimple Predict app
2. Go to the Wallet (person) tab and tap the gear (Settings) icon
3. Tap Close account
4. Confirm by tapping Close account

Fees

There's a flat fee of $0.02 USD per contract on both buys and sells. There are no other trading commissions.

When you convert currency, from the Wallet screen or when prompted in the trading flow, these volume-based FX fees apply:

Market buys placed in CAD are converted to USD at our exchange rate, which includes a flat 1.5% foreign exchange (FX) fee. You'll see the exchange rate and your total cost in CAD before you submit.

How fees work on fractional contracts

Because you can buy fractional contracts, the fee scales proportionally. The fee is calculated as your contract quantity multiplied by $0.02 USD, then rounded to the nearest cent. This means the fee moves in $0.01 USD increments as your position size increases. For example, a position of 0.24 contracts incurs no fee, while 0.25 contracts incurs $0.01 USD.

Frequently asked questions

Related articles

• How Wealthsimple Predict works