Overview

Wealthsimple Predict is a prediction markets trading app that lets you take a Yes or No position on whether a real-world event will happen. It's a standalone app, separate from your main Wealthsimple app, with its own dedicated account. If your position is correct, each contract pays out $1 USD. If it's wrong, it pays $0 USD.

What you can trade

You can trade event contracts on real-world outcomes. At launch, you can trade thousands of contracts across three categories:

• Financial metrics (such as market indices, asset prices, and corporate earnings)
• Economic data (such as interest rates, inflation, and employment)
• Climate (such as temperature thresholds and precipitation levels)

How prices and payouts work

Every contract is priced between $0.01 USD and $0.99 USD. The price of a contract at any given time reflects what the market collectively thinks the probability of that outcome is. For example, a Yes contract trading at $0.70 USD implies a 70% probability of a Yes outcome. You can buy or sell contracts before settlement, so positions can be exited as new information moves the market.

• Each Yes contract pays $1 USD for the Yes outcome and $0 USD for the No outcome.
• Each No contract pays $1 USD for the No outcome and $0 USD for the Yes outcome.
• Your maximum loss is always capped at what you paid.
• You can buy fractional contracts, so you can trade any dollar amount.

Get started

Wealthsimple Predict is a separate app from the main Wealthsimple app.

Steps on iOS

Before you begin, you'll need an iPhone running iOS 16 or later and the TestFlight app installed (free from the App Store).

1. Download TestFlight from the App Store if you don't already have it.
2. Accept your invitation. Open the invitation email from Apple on your iPhone and tap View in TestFlight. This opens TestFlight and displays a redemption code.
3. Redeem and install. In TestFlight, tap your account icon, then Redeem Invite, then enter the code, then tap Install. The app will appear on your home screen.
4. Stay up to date. TestFlight updates the app automatically. To make sure you're notified, enable push notifications for TestFlight in your iPhone's Settings.

Once setup is complete, a Predict non-registered account is opened for you. This account can hold both CAD and USD, and it's separate from all your other Wealthsimple accounts.

Fund your Predict account

You can fund your Predict account by following these steps:

1. Go to the Wallet tab and tap Add
2. Choose a funding source
3. Enter the amount you want to add
4. Tap Next
5. Confirm deposit details
6. Tap Submit

You can fund your account with the following sources:

• Linked bank account: Deposits are available to trade instantly up to your personal instant deposit limit (typically $5,000 CAD, which resets every 3 business days). Amounts above your instant limit are available to trade within 5 business days.
• Visa or Mastercard debit card: Deposits are available to trade instantly, with no hold.
• Internal transfers from other Wealthsimple accounts: Timelines on when deposits are available to trade depend on the type of account you're transferring funds from.

Place a trade

You can place a trade on Predict by following these steps:

1. Find a contract. From the home screen, browse events by category, or use the Search bar to find a specific topic. Tap an event to open its Event Detail page, where you'll see a description, the current Yes and No prices, a probability chart, the settlement date, and how the outcome will be decided.
2. Choose your position. For a single-outcome event, tap Yes if you think the outcome will happen or No if you think it won't. For a multi-bracket event, tap the threshold you want to trade, then choose Yes or No for that bracket.
3. Set your order size. Enter either the number of contracts you want (fractional contracts are supported) or the dollar amount you want to trade. The app shows your total cost, your maximum potential profit, and your maximum potential loss.
4. Review and submit. Tap Review to check the contract, your position, the number of contracts, the price, and the total cost. When everything looks right, tap Submit. You'll see an Order Submitted confirmation, and your position will appear under Open Positions in the Contracts tab.

Manage your positions

You can sell your position any time while the market is open:

1. Go to the Contracts tab and open the Open tab
2. Select the contract you want to exit
3. Tap Sell, enter the quantity to sell, and tap Submit

Once the event's outcome is determined, your contracts settle automatically. Each Yes contract pays $1 USD if that outcome occurs. Each No contract pays $0 USD if it doesn't occur. Settlement timing varies by market and is shown in the Timeline section of the Event Detail page. No action is needed from you.

You can review your open positions under Contracts, then Open, your past trades under Contracts, then Closed, and your monthly statements in the app.

Withdraw your funds

You can withdraw funds from your Predict account by following these steps:

1. Go to the Wallet tab and tap Transfer funds
2. Choose your destination account
3. Enter the amount
4. Tap Next
5. Confirm transfer details
6. Tap Submit

Funds must be fully settled before you can withdraw them:

• Linked bank account deposits must settle for 5 business days from the deposit date before they can be withdrawn, and the withdrawal process takes 1–3 business days.
• Debit card deposits can be withdrawn instantly to the same card.
• Internal transfers to other Wealthsimple accounts can be done instantly.

Convert currency

Your Predict account holds both CAD and USD. All contracts are priced and settled in USD, so you'll need USD in your account before placing a trade. You can convert currency in two ways.

Convert currency yourself

If you deposited CAD, you'll need to convert it to USD before trading:

1. Go to the Wallet tab and tap Convert
2. Select CAD to USD
3. Enter the amount you want to convert
4. Tap Next
5. Review the exchange rate and total
6. Tap Submit

Automatic conversion during trades

If you have CAD in your Predict account when you place a trade, the app can convert it to USD automatically at the time of order submission. The same volume-based FX fees apply, and you'll see the exchange rate before you confirm.

Fees

There's a flat fee of $0.02 USD per contract on both buys and sells. There are no other trading commissions.

Because contracts are in USD, standard Wealthsimple volume-based FX fees apply when you convert currency:

How fees work on fractional contracts

Because you can buy fractional contracts, the fee scales proportionally. The fee is calculated as your contract quantity multiplied by $0.02 USD, then rounded to the nearest cent. This means the fee moves in $0.01 USD increments as your position size increases. For example, a position of 0.24 contracts incurs no fee, while 0.25 contracts incurs $0.01 USD.

Frequently asked questions