In this article:
Overview
This article explains how Wealthsimple Predict works: who powers it, how markets and outcomes work, and how we ensure fairness. For an overview of what Predict is and how to use it, see Understanding Wealthsimple Predict.
Which markets we offer
You can trade event contracts on real-world outcomes across three categories: financial metrics, economic data, and climate.
How we choose which markets to offer
We only offer markets for trading that fall within categories Wealthsimple has received regulatory approval to offer, and each market has to settle on a clear, official data source, such as a recognized financial benchmark, a government statistics agency, or an official weather body. If the source that decides a market is unclear, we don't list it.
Markets we'll never offer
Some markets are off the table no matter what:
- Death and mortality. No contracts where settlement depends on whether a specific person is alive or dead.
- Initiation of armed conflict. No contracts referencing or capable of incentivizing the start of armed conflict.
- Personal harm and violence. No contracts on the physical safety or personal circumstances of identifiable living individuals.
- Terrorism. No contracts referencing acts of terrorism.
Who powers Predict
Wealthsimple Investments Inc. is the Canadian brokerage you trade through, and one of two brokerages (as of March 5, 2026) regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) to offer this trading product in Canada.
When building this product, we prioritized finding an exchange partner that was regulated and could deliver the best experience for our clients across liquidity, reliability, and market quality. Kalshi is a globally leading, regulated prediction exchange. Working with them means we can make thousands of contracts available to our clients. There's currently no regulated Canadian prediction markets exchange.
Think of it like how the NYSE or Nasdaq lists stocks for trading: our exchange partner lists prediction market contracts, and we make those available for you to trade directly through the brokerage in the Wealthsimple Predict app. Your money and assets are all held with Wealthsimple Investments Inc.
How outcomes are decided
Every contract has predefined resolution rules and resolution sources, which you can view on the Event Detail page before you trade. When the event concludes, the outcome is determined by the exchange using those rules. There's a defined window during which a settlement can be challenged, after which the outcome is final. Wealthsimple can't override a settlement.
How we protect market integrity
Insider trading is illegal and has no place in our product. Across all of our trading products, we have controls in place to monitor, detect, and report potential insider trading activity. We monitor at the brokerage level through Know Your Client (KYC) requirements, and our exchange and clearing partners have monitoring in place to protect market integrity. We continue to invest in surveillance and controls to deliver a trusted product for our clients.
Why Wealthsimple offers prediction markets
Prediction markets are a popular and fast-growing financial instrument. We built Wealthsimple Predict to give Canadians a trusted place to explore this asset class if they want to, built with the same rigour as all our products: within Canada's regulatory framework, with education and disclosures throughout the product experience.
Predict is a separate, standalone app with its own dedicated account, separate from your other Wealthsimple accounts. It's entirely your choice whether to take part.
Frequently asked questions
Is Wealthsimple Predict legal in Canada, and who regulates it?
Yes. Wealthsimple Predict is offered through Wealthsimple Investments Inc., which is regulated by CIRO, under the same framework that governs futures trading in Canada.
Is Wealthsimple Predict the same as gambling or sports betting?
No. Wealthsimple Predict allows you to trade event contracts, which are classified as derivatives. It's a separate standalone app, so it's your choice whether to take part.
How are the markets I can trade decided?
We only offer trading on markets that meet Wealthsimple's regulatory approval, settle on an official data source, and meet our prohibitions list.
What stops other traders from using inside information against me?
Trading is monitored on more than one level. Wealthsimple applies KYC checks and insider trading standards to every account, our intermediary carries out independent monitoring, and the exchange watches trading in real time and can pause activity. People who might hold non-public information about a market are kept from trading on related markets.
Can the outcome of a market I've traded be changed?
No. Outcomes are determined by the exchange using each contract's predefined rules. Wealthsimple can't alter or appeal a settlement.
Does Predict affect my TFSA, RRSP, or other Wealthsimple accounts?
No. Your Predict account is separate from all your other Wealthsimple accounts, and trading on Predict doesn't affect them.
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